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Characterization of autoregressive processes using entropic quantifiers
(2018-01) Traversaro Varela, Francisco; Redelico, Francisco
"The aim of the contribution is to introduce a novel information plane, the causal-amplitude informational plane. As previous works seems to indicate, Bandt and Pompe methodology for estimating entropy does not allow to distinguish between probability distributions which could be fundamental for simulation or for probability analysis purposes. Once a time series is identified as stochastic by the causal complexity-entropy informational plane, the novel causal-amplitude gives a deeper understanding of the time series, quantifying both, the autocorrelation strength and the probability distribution of the data extracted from the generating processes. Two examples are presented, one from climate change model and the other from financial markets"
Libor at crossroads: stochastic switching detection using information theory quantifiers
(2016-07) Fernández Bariviera, Aurelio; Guercio, M. Belén; Martinez, Lisana B.; Rosso, Osvaldo A.
"This paper studies the 28 time series of Libor rates, classified in seven maturities and four currencies, during the last 14 years. The analysis was performed using a novel technique in financial economics: the Complexity-Entropy Causality Plane. This planar representation allows the discrimination of different stochastic and chaotic regimes. Using a temporal analysis based on moving windows, this paper unveils an abnormal movement of Libor time series around the period of the 2007 financial crisis. This alteration in the stochastic dynamics of Libor is contemporary of what press called "Libor scandal", i.e. the manipulation of interest rates carried out by several prime banks. We argue that our methodology is suitable as a market watch mechanism, as it makes visible the temporal redution in informational efficiency of the market."
Permutation entropy based time series analysis: equalities in the input signal can lead to false conclusions
(2017-06) Zunino, Luciano; Olivares, Felipe; Scholkmann, Felix; Rosso, Osvaldo A.
"A symbolic encoding scheme, based on the ordinal relation between the amplitude of neighboring values of a given data sequence, should be implemented before estimating the permutation entropy. Consequently, equalities in the analyzed signal, i.e. repeated equal values, deserve special attention and treatment. In this work, we carefully study the effect that the presence of equalities has on permutation entropy estimated values when these ties are symbolized, as it is commonly done, according to their order of appearance. On the one hand, the analysis of computer-generated time series is initially developed to understand the incidence of repeated values on permutation entropy estimations in controlled scenarios. The presence of temporal correlations is erroneously concluded when true pseudorandom time series with low amplitude resolutions are considered. On the other hand, the analysis of real-world data is included to illustrate how the presence of a significant number of equal values can give rise to false conclusions regarding the underlying temporal structures in practical contexts."
Permutation min-entropy: an improved quantifier for unveiling subtle temporal correlations
(2015-01) Zunino, Luciano; Olivares, Felipe; Rosso, Osvaldo A.
"The aim of this letter is to introduce the permutation min-entropy as an improved symbolic tool for identifying the existence of hidden temporal correlations in time series. On the one hand, analytical results obtained for the fractional Brownian motion stochastic model theoretically support this hypothesis. On the other hand, the analysis of several computer-generated and experimentally observed time series illustrate that the proposed symbolic quantifier is a versatile and practical tool for identifying the presence of subtle temporal structures in complex dynamical systems. Comparisons against the results obtained with other tools confirm its usefulness as an alternative and/or complementary measure of temporal correlations."
A simple and fast representation space for classifying complex time series
(2017-03) Zunino, Luciano; Olivares, Felipe; Fernández Bariviera, Aurelio; Rosso, Osvaldo A.
"In the context of time series analysis considerable effort has been directed towards the implementation of efficient discriminating statistical quantifiers. Very recently, a simple and fast representation space has been introduced, namely the number of turning points versus the Abbe value. It is able to separate time series from stationary and non-stationary processes with long-range dependences. In this work we show that this bidimensional approach is useful for distinguishing complex time series: different sets of financial and physiological data are efficiently discriminated. Additionally, a multiscale generalization that takes into account the multiple time scales often involved in complex systems has been also proposed. This multiscale analysis is essential to reach a higher discriminative power between physiological time series in health and disease. "

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Browsing Física by Subject "ANALISIS DE SERIES DE TIEMPO"

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